Monday, January 18, 2016

The Geopolitics of 2016: Oil, War, Chaos and Pathological Altruism.







   Word on the ground at the Pentagon is that the Obama Administration's foreign policy is viewed as so inept, directionless and without clear objective that the US Joint Chiefs of Staff have had to step in behind the scenes and offer tacit assistance to Assad in Syria to help him shore up his defensive line before the whole Middle East goes to shit. Based on pragmatism alone, any combat theater that puts US, French, UK, Turkish, Israeli, Syrian and Russian combat aircraft together in the same war fighting environment demands from an Administration, at the very least, delicacy and tact, but even more importantly, leadership and craft. The current US Administration's policy on Syria exhibits none of these qualities to its allies, but far worse than this, it exhibits none of these qualities to its enemies.



    War will always be the extension of politics by other means. 




   That's why every time Obama deploys one of his cloned spokeswomen wearing the "problem glasses" to a White House press briefing, I cringe as they tell Russia how very concerned the Administration is with all that nasty interventional bombing stuff going on in Syria. Putin and his cronies must be playing that drinking game in the Kremlin where you have to take a vodka shot every time the problem chick says trigger words like "counterproductive" or "indiscriminate bombing" and you must double shot when the term "civilian casualties" gets used. The truth is, US foreign policy is chaos and reeks of hypocrisy and the rest of the world knows it. And its presentation is even worse. Say what you will about the tenets of Bush-era neocon aggression and naked Cheney Halliburton rapine, but at least it was an ethos dude.





   And this very lack of a coherent American foreign policy over the last two years is having all kinds of unintended consequences across the globe. When the Russians took what could be taken (Crimea) in what in hindsight remains a brilliant strategic maneuver – bloodless – (well, you know what I mean, a few people burned to death here, some more maimed and vaporized there) but in the grand scheme of things the Crimean annexation was something any general in any time would call a cheap victory. Either way, NATO was caught flat-footed, responded only after much chin scratching and imposed its sanctions rather limply at first, making attempts to freeze up all that sleazy Russian oligarch money in foreign banks. When that didn't hurt enough, the US turned on the fracking spigot, squeezing once-dead wells into gushers and suddenly the US became the world's largest oil producer again. Along with Canadian shale oil, 'they' flooded the US market with so much cheap crude that every Texan with a Hummer or Escalade to feed began praising Jesus before ordering a hooker.


   Oil's precipitous decline on world markets during 2015 was a marvel to watch.


   If only it was cooking oil, I could've made more popcorn.


  The whole Russian economy is a one trick pony that needs $110 a barrel oil as a base price just to keep up Moscow's balance of payments. Putin's drinking game crashed up against a raging hangover when Russia went into recession and the ruble began to shed value as oil plummeted. That's how wars begin of course. They slow boil for years and are waged economically first before any shooting starts. But who's going to start a shooting war in a post-nuclear world with Russia? Still, it's worth remembering Japan had been under a US oil embargo for years before they 'suddenly' attacked Pearl Harbor in '41. 

   Low oil prices have had all kinds of domino effects that complicate the global chessboard.

   For one thing, Saudi Aramco (basically the House of Saud's personal corporation) and the largest company on earth with yearly earnings three times that of the GDP of the UK, does not particularly like low oil prices either. Go figure. Just like Russia, they too like it when oil prices are in the hundred dollar a barrel range because a new Ferrari a week per obscure Saudi prince is seen as a divine right and cheap oil tends to make the royals skimp on the options package. Also, the Wahhabi ruling class in Saudi Arabia need a constant stream of cash to buy off their captive population of restless sex-starved street racing youth who, without regular pay offs, might get all romantic and rebellious and wonder if ISIS could help them revolt and get their hands on all those sweet sweet spice exporting terminals the princes own and grab all of that for themselves. Wealth beyond the dreams of avarice is always a temptation for revolt as is access to 72 virgins but in this life before you die. Due to the crash in oil prices, the ruling Saudi royals are having to dip into their savings accounts. Deep though they may be, paying off their population with the usual stream of benefits does not come cheap because no matter how you cut it, you can behead only so many people before your Bastille gets stormed.


   In chaos and war, it always comes down to the money. But more on oil prices later.


  One major interesting Obama Administration foreign policy maneuver in 2015 was the nuclear deal signed with Iran. Now that was popcorn-worthy. It was worth it just to watch the Israelis squirm. The Zionists are so used to running American foreign policy for their own benefit and having the US Army take care of their enemies for them (Hussein, Gaddafi, Assad etc) that it was hilarious to watch Netanyahu throw a shit fit in the US Congress against the Iranian deal. It was so tasty to watch that I bought some kosher popcorn, sprinkled it with bacon fat and almost put it in the blender so I could drink it through a straw like a freedom smoothie. Standing up to AIPAC and the Zionist lobby is the single jewel I can admire in the Obama Administration's non illustrious crown. As to the grand chessboard of the Middle East, it's now hard to see Israel making a move on Natanz or the other Iranian nuclear facilities. Not only because of their lack of long range refueling tankers and need for US logistic support, but mainly because the worldwide blowback that would ensue would be a PR shit storm too much even for the Israelis to endure.

This is popcorn. It is tasty. Eat some.


  As to Syria, as I've written before, it is just the current year in the wider Sunni v Shia regional proxy war. But here's the fun part. With sanctions about to be lifted on Iran, that means their oil can come to market. The Iranians, in need of hard foreign currency, will begin pumping immediately. Right now, the Saudis have continued pumping oil despite the low price, not just because they can, but because they want to punish US and Canadian shale oil producers who desperately need high oil prices to function simply due to their high costs of extraction. Saudi Aramco would very much like these competitors knocked out of business, workers laid off and all investments in energy self-sufficiency go belly up before the Sheikhs turn down the flow rate on the spigot. Oil is a dirty business because the profits are so huge and men will kill and die for it. Yet the sleazy template always remains the same. First neutralize the competition because the Saudis can pump cheap. Next, let all those bloated storage terminals and offshore tankers unload the glut of contango oil to Gulf refineries. Pump nothing. Wait for prices to climb steadily as shortage inflates prices just before the summer driving season. Hey presto, a Saudi prince just earned himself a new Ferrari because he woke up in the morning.


   This is basically the Saudi economy in a nutshell. 

   But here's the fun part.

   This dollar harvest is going to be harder to farm now that Iran is waiting in the wings ready to pick up any slack in supply. Hungry for hard currency, the Iranians will pump for any price, killing Saudi ambitions to get back to mythical 2007 money. That is one reason why the Shia v Sunni proxy war in Syria is fought also in Yemen, Iraq, Somalia, Pakistan and Bahrain, all of these countries being about as politically stable as a waste water containment tank at Fukushima. 

   It's Sunni oil versus Shia oil and most people in the West with a vehicle don't care.
   







   The irony here is that Israel is now Saudi Arabia's new best friend. True, their interests have been aligned for years based on that old "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" maxim, but still, it's interesting. Both of them have excellent US supplied air forces, overwhelming when compared to the Iranians’ Shah-era F-14s. But the latest word on the international arms market is that the Russians have cleared their long standing deal with the Iranians and will begin delivery of the promised state of the art S-300 air defense system by the end of 2016. This would make any attack on Iranian facilities by air orders of magnitude more costly to any aggressor outside of stealth aircraft. And even then, who knows? The Serbs shot down a stealth fighter during the Kosovo war back in the ‘90s and gave the wreckage to the Chinese whose embassy in Belgrade got 'accidentally bombed' by the US days later. Still, you can make a safe bet that if some NATO anti-tank weaponry just happened to fall off the back of a truck in Eastern Ukraine any time soon, then I'd bet that Iran would have a Russian S-300 anti-aircraft dome deployed over Tehran the very next day.




   The chessboard in 2016 is complicated my friends.


  No discussion of the price of oil and US foreign policy would be complete without mentioning the dollar or, more precisely, the petrodollar. Yeah, I know, every guy on the Internet has a Ph.D in this theory but, if all oil must be bought in dollars then this artificial demand for dollars means that, from Russia and China's point of view, they are indirectly funding America's foreign wars every time they buy or sell a barrel of crude. Putin has signaled he wants to create an oil index and buy oil in rubles. Sure, it’s a farfetched idea right now considering the ruble makes up only about one percent of the FOREX market but it is also the kind of idea that can get you killed, or start a war, just ask Saddam Hussein or Gaddafi... oh wait.


   They already tried it and they're dead.


  Europeans can and should rightly lay some blame at the door of the Obama Administration for its current influx woes. Buying oil in dollars means that European nations are indirectly paying for the very US machinations in Syria that have flooded their own countries with a million ‘refugees’ in a single year. The Obama Administration's total ineptitude when it came to handling post-war Iraq, leaving the field by some arbitrary date as a campaign promise just to woo the young Starbucks-drinking urban hipster vote left a power vacuum in Iraq into which ISIS flowed. Even the Joint Chiefs of Staff were mind-blown by the stupidity. Sure, the Bush neocons broke the vase and did all the damage in the first place, but walking away and leaving the pieces broken was as short-sighted as it was politically expedient for re-election purposes.


  As Churchill liked to say, "The greatest argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."


  Now, after the atrocities, the burnings in cages, the medieval barbarity on the nightly news, this same Administration wants to go after the last dictator left in the Middle East, Assad, the last man standing, he who is holding back the tide. Say what you will about Gaddafi or Hussein. They were dictators, killers and brutal, but you have to be brutal in tribal lands just to keep order. Factional desert people just don't do voting booths and a polite letter to their Congressman. Arabian concepts of grievance are that when there's a problem they grab an AK and march their way towards the problem until the problem owns a tank and then they shut the fuck up and go home.


  Tribal politics are based on power and this economy of power has existed in Arabia for a thousand years. That power trickles down from a leader in a hierarchal pyramid much like the one printed on the back of every dollar bill. The West, terrified by the upheaval brought about by the ‘Arab Spring’ sided with the mob and those at the bottom of the pyramid in the name of ‘democracy’.


  Yeah, I don't swallow that one either, but it's what they printed in the newspapers and said on TV so it must be true. Right?


  Either way, with the tacit and logistic support of the US, the French and British air forces took out Gaddafi's armor and military infrastructure and now there's a boat leaving from the Libyan coast to Europe every day just like Gaddafi had warned; boats and rafts filled with the dregs of humanity from backward shit holes like Eritrea, Yemen, Somalia; places so far removed from any concept of European civilization that it boggles the mind that these people show up as refugees in cities from Cologne to Stockholm and have to be given classes on how not to rape women in skirts because Europe, contrary to their belief system, is not an ongoing live action roleplaying porno movie.

Miss us yet?

   The hordes pouring out of Syria are unwelcome in every other Middle Eastern country outside of Jordan because even their fellow Arabs do not want them around and see fractious Syrian ethnic Druze, Alawites, Sunni Arabs, Turkmen etc as a destabilizing force. The Israelis on the Syrian border accept zero refugees. Funny how Zionists promote multiculturalism in every country except their own. Funny too how over 80% of the migrants are military aged men and a million alone entered Europe in 2015 with a million more to come in 2016. The Battle of Vienna was fought in 1683 at the gates of Western Civilization to keep out the Ottoman Turks. This current migrant crisis is not immigration; it's a fucking invasion. How many of these men are veteran militia fighters, cells waiting to be activated to wage the same war they've fought in Damascus and Dara'a on the streets of Cologne, London or Stockholm?


  Or like Paris recently, link up with their homegrown brethren for more asymmetrical warfare.




  European citizenry, or at the very least the officials they elect, are suffering from some kind of post WWII abhorrence to violence that borders on self destruction. Decades of plenty has given rise to a pathological altruism among European populations that would shock their world conquering ancestors. WWII has left such an indelible mark on the mainland European psyche and created a mythical egalitarianism where populations believe every foe can be defeated if only you just love them enough. It's like Jesus on steroids except they're all atheists. For the Germans, they seem to have this need to prove to the world they're not Nazis anymore and think Angela Merkel can accomplish some kind of sainthood by flooding quaint German villages with peoples from foreign deserts who have no wish to assimilate, no love for their new land, worship a strange god and see everything European civilization has produced as worthless blasphemy.

  Think of it this way. If one percent of the refugees entering Europe in 2015 are veteran militia fighters (a conservative number) that means 10,000 men operating behind enemy lines. No European country since the fall of Rome would have allowed foreign infiltration on this scale without conflict or confrontation. And yet today, a million people have walked into Europe and to even raise the question as to why this is so and who they are means you're a racist and a bigot. Such is the power of media driven thought control and political correctness.

   This is the power of pathological altruism.
    
    Oil funds it.

    War fuels it.

    Chaos enjoys it.

    And so welcome to 2016.

    Quite possibly the most interesting year to be alive ever so long as you've got popcorn.

    


113 comments:

  1. Ugh. So good.

    "and now there's a boat leaving from the Libyan coast to Europe every day just like Gaddafi had warned; boats and rafts filled with the dregs of humanity from backward shit holes like Eritrea, Yemen, Somalia; places so far removed from any concept of European civilization that it boggles the mind that these people show up as refugees in cities from Cologne to Stockholm and have to be given classes on how not to rape women in skirts because Europe, contrary to their belief system, is not an ongoing live action roleplaying porno movie."

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  2. Great read bro, 2016 looks like being an interesting year indeed bro. I like my popcorn extra buttery!

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  3. Popcorn isn't considered halal in the UK anymore... I can't enjoy what is happening.

    Great to have you back though.

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  4. Fascinating and fun read. Cheers.

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  5. Incisive, decisive and factual, as always.

    Welcome back, Wartard...you've been gone too long, man!

    As I said to an old friend of mine recently, as we discussed a similar issue...all this shit's going down...and there's not a fucking thing we can do about it...and one day, it'll be too late.

    We will only be told what the powers that be decide we're to be told.

    On a sidenote: I have a sneaking admiration for Putin, I must admit. The man gets shit done.

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    1. I have a sneaking suspicion that it's not so much that Putin is such an exacting and capable leader as that Muscovian politics allows for more decisive unilateralism than its Western counterparts. His image is so carefully constructed that it's more Hollywood than anything. (He goes on a diving trip in Greece and just stumbles on ancient artifacts, really?)

      If he really was able to get shit done then the Russian economy would have bounced back and they would be leading the international efforts to achieve a conflict settlement in Syria.

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  6. "It's like Jesus on steroids except they're all atheists." Great line man.

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  7. Sure glad to see you back...thought maybe the Israelis or Our Military Industrial Complex kidnapped your, er, person off to some black site.

    A disturbing reading. Bush negotiated the withdrawal of forces before Obama took office. So, would you have Obama go against both the American and Iraqi people's will and just tear up the agreement?
    Your description of Euro "Just love them ENOUGH" appeasement really opened my eyes.
    Nothing like petropolitics, the Islamic Schism mixed with the ongoing side effects of unraveled Colonialism to ensure that we live in "interesting times."

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  8. Sure glad to see you back...thought maybe the Israelis or Our Military Industrial Complex kidnapped your, er, person off to some black site.

    A disturbing reading. Bush negotiated the withdrawal of forces before Obama took office. So, would you have Obama go against both the American and Iraqi people's will and just tear up the agreement?
    Your description of Euro "Just love them ENOUGH" appeasement really opened my eyes.
    Nothing like petropolitics, the Islamic Schism mixed with the ongoing side effects of unraveled Colonialism to ensure that we live in "interesting times."

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  9. Great Analysis. As I read I realized how much I miss regular updates to this blog.

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  10. You're not reading the European situation correctly. Our biggest problem is not terrorism, nor the increase in petty crime. We're on the verge of a pension system collapse because the fine folks living here didn't bother providing the state with at least 2 new tax payers per family, so we have less and less people working to pay more and more pensions.

    We need those "military age males" to work for us, and we need them now. Even if by some miracle we convince rich Europeans to start popping out those stressful little critters, they won't join the work force soon enough. We need immigration for a very selfish reason.

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    1. Yes, we do. But not in the millions! And those people can neither speak our language, nor can they (most of them anyway) speak English.
      In order to put them to work, they need to be paid a minimum wage. For someone who has pretty much no capability at all, nobody can and wants to pay a full wage (sure sure, they all went to (koran) school and are certified whatevers, but it is not comparable to our standards ...).
      Because we are not allowed to pay them less than minimum wage, a lot of them are doing nothing, even if they were willing to (a lot are). After some weeks/months of doing nothing, they get bored ... and start touching a women here, stabbing someone there, you get the picture ...

      I am so so disappointed in ... humanity? I don't even know who to blame. I feel overrun. I am afraid. I can't even talk to those people. They don't understand me. I feel threatened in my own country. I feel like it's too late to do anything.

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    2. Everyone has always been afraid of 'The Other' but by and large it's always worked out. Everyone just wants stability; the first generation will barely be able to assimilate and will remain Syrian or what have you but the kids will grow up speaking the language and fitting in better, identifying as, say, Syrian-Germans.

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    3. The majority of immigrants to the EU don't pay taxes they collect benefits. And even if they did work do you think what will become a majority of the military aged males will really want to pay the pensions of some wrinkly old infidels keeping some grey haired white people around as pets out of the goodness of their rapist heart. If they are so good for the economy then why are not the places they come from rich and booming, they are low IQ inbreds.

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    4. You forgot to check some hard facts:
      German data: about 13% are employable. (That includes menial, ditch digging jobs)
      Their average schooling is 5th grade level (European).
      20+% are simply illiterate.
      53% will never be employable as they are untrainable to function in a high tech country - like Germany.

      Psychology: They have low IQ. They are lazy. They are aggressive and pushy - with a sense of entitlement. They are fanatically religious. They disrespect people in general, women in particular. Completely undeveloped ethics (crime prone). Low self-control combined with high sexual drive. Inability to compromise in conflict, therefore violence prone. They are hardened...
      Your notion looks good on paper, provided you have European type personnel to work with. Problem is, that in essence (it's an exaggeration for illustration) you imported monkeys to do people's work. For some reason you have a basic inability to distinguish between the two.
      Guess what: It'll NEVER work.

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    5. I take it you're north-western europeans or americans... because this string of arguments is getting sillier by the answer.

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  11. This article needs a big fat reference to Huntington.

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  12. A really interesting article thanks. I definitely agree with all your points about the weakness of Obama foreign policy.

    W

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  13. Well I personally welcome Islam and Sharia law. I say more refugees! More Islam! So that one day we have the numbers to finally put our insane women back under control. Christianity will not do this. Will not even talk about it, as I tried when I joined several fake Christian churches. Methodist church has a married leader fucking whores in the church and then having the minister removed when he objects. Lol Christianity.

    But you know what? Islam and Sharia law will bring our insane women under control. So I say more refugees! More diversity! Until there are enough here for us to bring our insane women under control. They can breed with the winners.

    Sure there will be much death and destruction. My children, whom I can not raise, will probably die. Who cares? I welcome Islam as there is nothing this 'grand' western civilization can offer me. I have prayed for it's destruction. My dreams are coming true.

    Death to the infidels.

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    1. LOL wow man you said a mouthful! i been der don dat

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  14. Well I personally welcome Islam and Sharia law. I say more refugees! More Islam! So that one day we have the numbers to finally put our insane women back under control. Christianity will not do this. Will not even talk about it, as I tried when I joined several fake Christian churches. Methodist church has a married leader fucking whores in the church and then having the minister removed when he objects. Lol Christianity.

    But you know what? Islam and Sharia law will bring our insane women under control. So I say more refugees! More diversity! Until there are enough here for us to bring our insane women under control. They can breed with the winners.

    Sure there will be much death and destruction. My children, whom I can not raise, will probably die. Who cares? I welcome Islam as there is nothing this 'grand' western civilization can offer me. I have prayed for it's destruction. My dreams are coming true.

    Death to the infidels.

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  15. I think we should create a war tard drinking team ... our team strategy involves doing shots every time a talking head on the news says shit like "civilian casualties" im in to my 2nd bottle at the moment. Like they fukin care lol

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  16. As usual this is a great article. I would take issue with one point. Wartard seems to gloss over the impact of just how terrible the impact was for the Bush 2.0 crew to get us in Iraq in the first place. From the moment the first US boot hit the desert sand, the US being painted into a corner was complete. We lost the end of the war the moment it started. The longer we stayed there the more resentment would build up and the moment we left was the moment an ISIS/Syria scenario was bound to be inevitable. Blame it on the ineptitude of the Obama administration all you want. But that problem was set in motion long before Obama was elected and it will be there long after he leaves. There is no person who can fix this. The only leader who could have prevented this mess was Bush 2.0 but you can’t unpop the popcorn.

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    1. Yeah I thought there was an inconsistency there as well, specially since saying that they should have stayed to fix the issue, but didn't mention what the 1919 treaty did as a starting point, after that you can follow the super powers interests and their proxy wars.
      Saying this last battle in Iraq is the one we should have stuck with when all the others failed was the big flaw in the argument.

      Having said that, glad WT finally posted something

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  17. Glad to see you back writing have missed your take on the great story we are all living through, don't take so long to make your next post please,

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  18. Dude. More than a year! 15 months... I'd just about given up hope.

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  19. Thank you very much for posting again, I checked back usually once a month looking for new content and today there was! A great read as always.

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    1. haha, did the same throughout the year ;)

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  20. Good read but incorrect to say the US embargoed Japan for 'years'. The oil embargo was only in effect for 6-7 months before Pearl Harbour. Embargo went into effect on August 1 1941. Pearly Harbour was December 7th or 8th 1941 IIRC.

    Source > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

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    1. An embargo is a polite word for "blockade" which in modern parlance has been re-termed as "sanctions".

      All of these actions throughout naval history are acts of war. The modern world becomes much clearer when you hold fast with the swift redefinition of words that the news media juggle but most important is that you have the understanding of the temporal floating terminology of semantics. The meaning of words change depending on what power level delivers those words.

      The only true thing is that is has always been like this since humans formed civilizations and the pyramid ascended.

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  21. Fascinating stuff - great to have you back. I may have misunderstood but I disagree with the chronology and link between the US shale oil boom and Russia's annexation of Crimea. The shale-induced Hummers and hookers that you speak of were getting ridden long before Vlad flexed his muscles and grabbed Crimea and its warm-water port. US oil production began its miraculous rebirth back in circa 2009 when Mr Putin wasn't even President. No doubt that cheap oil has been an extremely convenient foreign and domestic policy tool for the US administration (which may be deliberately exacerbating the glut by surreptitiously moving crude reserves from the SPR to commercial stocks to keep the prices down - but that is different debate entirely) but taps were not turned on to spite the Russians. The oil was already flowing.

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  22. Forever remembered as the article when WarTard jumped the shark. That graphic about immigration is from the Daily Mail... Sad face, cries into popcorn.

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    1. I agree. 'Tard must have hit his head in the year long absence.

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    2. That is frequently used piece of SJW circular logic. Any source that disagrees with an SJW is an evil racist source, so therefore there is no respectable source that disagrees with an SJW. Any source that agrees with an SJW is a respectable authoritive source, so all their lies can be accepted as truth.

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    3. Wait, Stephen, are you... defending the Daily Mail?

      Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah.

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    4. Are you writing off a source with your pathetic ad hominem arguments? Please show why the data may be inaccurate instead of falling back on your non-existent arguments. It would prove that you at least have passed the undergraduate level.

      Waiting for your inevitable non-response. Sorry you have such a clouded mind!

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    5. I'm just going to defend the article because it is quoiting EU stats. I could give a shit if the Daily Mail published it so long as it is a legit study.

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  23. Rather, WarTard has put on the sunglasses, and has seen reality.

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  24. Great to see another post on this blog and better than ever!

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  25. Hi war tard, I have been reading you since the time of gaddafi. You sparked many good reads of war & politics since that time. I owe you that man. Glad too see a new post, but i cannot help feeling something different in style about it. A little bit cool blooded, a touch of upper stratta genuine fear of the poor coming to the suburbs. Don't forget the anarchist humour, i guess that is the heart of your articles. Thanks for all, greetings from Montevideo

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  26. ahh great to have you back man! good article, but I feel you missed a key wildcard with not mentioning the Kurds and Turkeys slow slide into civil war. Granted I'm writing this with Aleppo being steadily surrounded and the "red line" inching closer but you have to admit.. direct Turkish intervention to salvage whatever legitimacy they have left in the region suddenly doesn't sound like some fan made historical fiction.

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  27. Finally! Great article, hope you plan on writing more frequently.

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  28. WT, so this guy is suggesting WW III is imminent
    http://www.infowars.com/world-war-iii-approaches-saudi-arabia-and-turkey-drop-hints-that-an-invasion-of-syria-is-imminent/
    Time for an update maybe?

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    1. This Turkey/Saudi ground invasion talk is scary as fuck. It has 1914 system of alliances written all over it. Unfortunately, I am dealing with a major illness in the family right now and cannot write as much as I could but I will try to get in some paragraphs in the next few days.

      Thank you all for the support.



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    2. Sorry to hear that WT, you deal with your shit before worrying about this shit.
      Hope things work out mate.

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  29. I enjoy reading your blogs WT. They are informative and entertaining. This latest one contains a sort of a lazy intellectualism that is becoming more rife regarding the "refugee" crisis. I am an Afghan Canadian, I now have two cousins (military aged males) in Germany. They are migrants in the sense that they are not escaping war, rather they are looking for more opportunity. They are not solely economic migrants, they are also seeking to live freer lives and to explore their lives and minds as human beings in a more liberal environment. They would like nothing more than to have their families to join them and for their brothers and sisters to enjoy those same freedoms. They are certainly not invaders in any sense of the word. I was surprised to read your analysis here fall into this lazy trap of white supermacism disguised as nativism (which I can respect).

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    1. Isn't that a definition of economic migrant tho? Do you and they not come to the west to improve your lot in life?

      Isn't the real laziness here the fact that you flee the problems in your homeland in order to have an easier life in the west?
      Why not stay in your part of the world and fix the problems in your country rather than running away and bringing your problems for us to fix.
      Isn't that the real laziness?


      Delete
  30. Thanks for the post. People may take help from theMA Gun License to know about the safety and firearms so that in case of any emergency you can use it safeguard yourself and others.

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  31. Thank you WT. It is amazing that your blog is one of the few places I can read thought-provoking content regarding these issues of global importance.

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  32. Great Article. But your facts about the refugees are off. Specifically, your statement, "80% of the refugees are military aged men".

    http://www.factcheck.org/2015/09/stretching-facts-on-syrian-refugees/

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  33. Would love to hear your thoughts on the increasingly unstable Sahel region. The West is struggling to contain a fundamentalist insurgency in a relatively small chunk of land in Iraq/Sryia. Something similar is in the offing in a lawless area that nearly spans the width of Africa

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  34. WT Thank you for posting again, you are a very very clear voice.

    Thanks again!

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  35. Distressing, Excited as I was to find new piece by Wartard I am upset to see it naked, without the rigorous analysis I have come to expect. Instead the piece is a drunk uncle worthy drawl of conspiracy oriented fear mongering. Focused on short term hand wringing "scary numbers," And without the long view clever conclusions I used to find here.

    I don't know if you have just been going through some stuff or finally did the smart thing and cashed out your online persona to the paid for global information hivemind, but I hope we can get back to old standard soon.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Thanks for posting again Wartard!! Love it. I, like many, disagree with some of your analysis and opinions. However I love your perspective and always enjoy your writing. So glad you posted again, would not miss your blog for anything, your always inspiring :) I hope the major illness issue resolved/es well, good luck. I hope you write again soon. You're always thought provoking, thanks mate.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Please update you blog! I love your insights and post are so entertaining.. I'm saddened by the spam. Things are a happening.

    ReplyDelete
  38. What's been happening in Europe is the result of bombing Iraq with democracy before leaving it and saying, "non of my business." Yet, the west doesn't seem to have learned its lesson and wants Assad removed with force creating chaos and the current situation.

    ReplyDelete
  39. So here we are July 8. The rule of law is basically dead in the united states and the UK got the balls to leave the EU. I'd like to predict that the altruism spigot may be getting ready to be shut off.

    ReplyDelete
  40. OMG ! Coup: Turkey. Nice. Vids on Live Leaks. I need more popcorn.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Here we are on the eve of the most insane election and the US is poking the Russian bear.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Thank you for your post. I love the lack of BS. I'm a double citizen and have split my life pretty evenly in both Russia and the US. I totally can't wait/dread what's coming next.

    ReplyDelete
  43. New blog post coming soon???

    ReplyDelete
  44. Respect! This is one of the best descriptions of our current situation I have ever read.

    ReplyDelete
  45. War Tard-We need you now more than ever. With a Clinton election coming, how likely do you think direct war with Iran is? Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And now with the actual Trump election is an Iran war MORE likely? Ward Tard, we need to know.

      Delete
    2. Trump Admin has already stated they are not going to engage in long-term fullscale invasion of countries like the previous admins did. His concern seems to be on destroying ISIS.

      Delete
  46. "And so welcome to 2016. Quite possibly the most interesting year to be alive ever so long as you've got popcorn." Maaaaan. That was some industrial strength Chinese curse. I hope you ordered a container-sized popcorn bag for this year :)

    ReplyDelete
  47. Now that Trump is elected, can we entice you back WarTard?

    Surely the geopolitics have changed now that the right has gained ascendancy after Brexit and Trump. You predicted it indirectly in this year old post. Syria policy brought down Clinton. I believe you're an insider in a three letter agency. Update this blog.

    Is there any chance you could give us a 2017 prediction?

    I have a wife and kids to protect.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Checking regularly. Wondering what you think of all this. Please come back.

    ReplyDelete
  49. With things changing daily, I bet it's hard to get an article nailed down. But anything would be nice. We have a White Nationalist government taking shape in the US and an Executive Branch attempting, it appears, to gain total control of the govt. High-level Russian intelligence are disappearing or turning up dead, sanctions about to be lifted... and so on. Really interested to see your take.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A White Nationalist Govt consisting of Ben Carson, Elaine Chao, and a bunch of Jews from Goldman Sachs. You idiots have lost your damn minds. What a bunch of leftist nonsense. The Democrats are funded by Soros, a literal Nazi who helped send Jews to concentration camps and confiscate their lands, and you're worried about the tenuous and nearly non-existent connection that the globalist-controlled media narrative is pushing.

      Delete
  50. I wish he'd come back. I miss his posts. War Tard, I'd donate to you. Paypal, Patreon whatever. come back.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Replies
    1. Yeah even something short on Twitter. My fear is that he choked on popcorn.

      Delete
  52. Wartard is never coming back...

    ReplyDelete
  53. First Jesus, then John Snow, then you... Come on man, about time to surprise us!

    ReplyDelete
  54. Tell me how to feel about the current geopolitical crises already!!! Wartard, please!

    ReplyDelete
  55. You awake from your sleep... it was all a dream.
    Russia, U.S., Saudi Arabia, Europe, Turkey, Syria ... what strange characters. Each fighting for something... the intricately interwoven details fade from your mind.

    You inhale the fresh morning air, flowing in from the recently opened windows. The wall shows the details of the day: No priority alerts. 5 messages. Weather clear. Government infrastructure tests 98% passing (upward trend). Ample credit reserves. Comittee meeting at 2, university after. Drinks with the guys from the flying club later.

    The chaos of the dream lastnight gives an extra sheen of well-oiled smoothness to the world before you. It had adventure, yes, and excitement. But great dread and uncertainty. Like a fast moving vehicle where everyone and no-one was the driver, careening around a cliffside road. You appreciate the solidity under your feet, thanking fate that we made it through those turbulent eras. Was that time a catharsis? Necessary for us, forcing us to discover a way through? A way to collectively steer the system (and by virtue everyone in it) with virtue, trust, integrity, stability...


    You awake from the dream. Rubble. The smell of the dust fills your nose, which your body refuses to acclimitize to, protesting, warning you to leave. You know this isin't the worst of it. These seconds of blissful ignorance will pass, then you will remember the dead. Each name and face and touch and sound. Gone forever into the distant past. You wonder why you still get up, there is nothing for you anymore. Maybe duty is all you have left. You sit while your brain tries to find a way to bring them back, but you know it will never happen. All you can do is help those still left to make it through. You...

    You awake from your sleep. Wikipedia, news, policy on the screen, 20 tabs deep. Stretch, scratch neckbeard, get undressed, shuffle off to bed. Same as it ever was, throughout time? Hard to tell. Maybe we just see more. A conflict between growing cynicism and idealistic pragmatism turns over within.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Top quality reply. Very well written. Thank you.
      You transported me back to a time when I still gave a fuck.

      Delete
    2. I miss you. If you stop drinking I will. You're very eloquent, please keep on writing. Lots of love, grandma.

      Delete
    3. I miss you too grandma.
      Same as it ever was? Hard to tell. I can't bring them back. None of us can. The Dead? Beyond any artist's pay grade. The chaos of the dream last night where everyone and no one was the driver on a cliffside road?

      Suffice to say, I know that feel.

      We will be together again.

      Delete
  56. War is coming in NK you fuck. Write something or delete your fucking blog already or announce blog is over. Fuck you

    ReplyDelete
  57. I wish I could be eloquent but I can't so I will just be frustrated and angry. Trying to rouse you old mate.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Can we rouse the beast into a little bit of analysis on NK for us plebians.,? I'm really apathetic also but NK war is edging closer.
    Sniff sniff..Is that popcorn? ..I'm sure I smell popcorn

    ReplyDelete
  59. http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-and-united-states-on-brink-of-war-warns-vladimir-putin-20170901-gy9dnl.html

    ReplyDelete
  60. sorry, was a bit hyped up. was not meaning to be so rude..haha..a very rough few days and im all fired up but depressed also..but i digress..anon evocative post was sensational, go grandma

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha ha ha, no is grandma. Is Russia. We make many mistake with Japanese in Port Arthur. Having weak command. Disaster for motherland, for whole world. Now no weak command. Many strategies. Many active measures. Europe is old men in retirement home, son U.S. of A. no affording to visit. All thinking they cage bear. Bear hunt unseen in places old men fear. Russia must be defending entire west against new powers they make. (Is good for Russia too, no?) Old men talk, we pat on head.

      Delete
  61. me again, do you ever get in a warpath mood in your own personal life/world and the shitty people in it, work managers and asshole motorists for instance?, that's me recently, for all and sundry who care..hahahahaaa

    ReplyDelete
  62. war tard should write about the coming nuclear war between all the powers. one big last article for all the days right before the world goes up like a toaster. boom! I can;t wait for the fireworks.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Happy 2018 war tard, we're still here

    ReplyDelete
  64. Mate, please come back. Start a Patreon page to help support your work. I'd throw in. The Trump vs Kim would have been juicy reading.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Hey WT, just another guy missing U here. I'd also throw in to support btw.
    Awsome blog, write someday!

    ReplyDelete
  66. happy second anniversary war tard its been 2 years since u posted.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Well I guess you haven't stopped drinking yet. It's still a new year and all kinds of saber rattling going on. Navy ships hitting other ships, missile testing. Christ son, get to typing.
    Love,
    Grandma.

    ReplyDelete
  68. I just wanted to say that your blog is what inspired me to pursue an MA in International Relations. If there's anything a $60,000 advanced degree taught me, its that geopolitics and hydrocarbons go together like Russians and track suits. American Shale is a 5 million barrel per day problem for petro-states (pour one out for Venezuela) and it's gotten so bad that the Saudis are willing to give Russian oil minister Alexander Novak a public tugjob at Davos in exchange for cooperation on sustained oil production cuts. China just became the world's largest crude importer (a distinction they view as more worrisome than "worst human trafficking offender") and will accelerate the build-out of their Navy's blue water capabilities to make sure the spice keeps flowing. Wonder what India, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, and the U.S. will think about that (hint: most microwaves have a "popcorn setting," make sure you familiarize yourself with yours).

    Yup. Even without mentioning North Korea, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, or Libya, 2018 looks like it has the ingredients to make a truck bed of tannerite blush. I just wish Wartard was here to guide us through the mess.

    We miss you man, come back.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL Public Tugjob. That's why I keep coming back every couple of months to read the comments. Every now and again someone has and interesting comment. That point on China and crude imports is a tricky issue.

      Delete
    2. Well written Jimmy.

      You are on the right track. Stay with your studies, complete your MA and stay tuned to the madness of geopolitics.

      The wrong is going to get increasingly unhinged and people like you are going to be needed to explain it to the normies. Maybe then they can wake up and do something about the shit storm brewing all around them.

      Delete
  69. On the brink of ww3 and no wartard post...

    It's been fun lads, fuck this gay earth

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. fuck this earth right in the pussy

      Delete
    2. For those utterly forlorn and lamenting the lack of easily digestible geopolitical analysis (ALA WarTard), there is a shimmer of light in the dark and sterile tunnel of mass-media.

      Check out The War Nerd podcast on Patreon (link below).

      The hosts provide an entertaining and contextually relevant in-depth analysis of geopolitics, international relations, and war mongering; both up-to-date and historical (some episodes cover ancient conflicts, others are solely modern).

      While the popcorn references are lacking, the hosts capture the tone, critical cynicism and humour WarTard fans have come to love.

      Obviously we all wish WarTard was chained to his desk for our benefit, but The War Nerd podcast is a welcome and recommended alternative in these days/months/years of quiet.

      https://www.patreon.com/radiowarnerd/posts

      Delete
  70. Hello !

    I work for an international association of geopolitics called YoungDiplomats! Our purpose is to deliver a set of knowledges and analysis on geopolitics and international relations. We have hundreds of writers from all over the world. They deliver their ideas on the website and organize conferences and events on geopolitics. Our website is followed by thousands of young people studying diplomacy, law or politics.
    The team of YoungDiplomats has spent much time reading Wartard and we love what you do and the way you write and see the world. That would be great for us to have your expertise!

    What would be the modalities of our partnership?


    We just need your authorizations to use what you’ve written and to publish it as an article in our website. Of course, our readers will see your logo, and will get access to your website through the links. Hundreds of students read YoungDiplomats every day and we can boost the number of people going to your website! If it’s possible, we’d like to publish your articles around one time every week or two week.

    I hope you will find this partnership advantageous!

    I look forward to hear from you !

    The YoungDiplomats team

    Here's the link towards our website http://www.young-diplomats.com

    Youngdiplomats.france@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  71. Thanks for sharing this information. It is a useable information. This is a nice and good blog.
    Best War Movies

    ReplyDelete
  72. Every body relax. Thank you all for giving a shit. I already wrote a 2018 geopolitics post in April but never published it because things changed geopolitically in Syria and the world axis has changed. I'm amending what I wrote before I will deliver. We are living in a world whose center of gravity shifts by the month. The desert is dangerous but that isn't even the heart of it. Iran is a target for ZOG. China is fortifying the South China Sea via concrete installations. Both Russia and China have super sonic missiles that can render US carriers useless.

    Warfare now is a new paradigm.

    I'm coming out of retirement to explain all of it and none of us will like it.

    Stock up on dry goods and cans because the future is not your friend.



    Remember, I write this stuff for free

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Remember, I write this stuff for free"

      I'm very grateful for all you have written. I know you didn't make that comment sucking around for donations. But I'll be happy to send you a little something via Paypal if you want. To me it's worth supporting quality content! :)

      Delete
  73. Hi War Tard

    Glad to see you back. Really appreciate what you write - thank you.
    All the best mate

    ReplyDelete
  74. I'm so happy you're back. Your prospective and insight have been sorely missed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks man. Your support over the years has meant a lot to me.

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete